Who is going to pull the British Asian vote?
Britain could be having a General Election at anytime within the next eight months. The election campaign machinery of all political parties are being oiled and greased, sometimes very quietly as if the competition may not find out! It is a matter of time when Gordon Brown will announce the election but hwen he does, will the British Asians be ready?
This commentary is not so much about what the state of the parties is in a wider national political discussion. It is more about the positions that the British Asians may be adopting and how they are going to be making their choices. What are the reasons for supporting any of the three political parties assuming that the Asians are not going to vote for smaller parties?
This is not going to be easy because the drivers for the Asian vote have been changing and the factors which will determine their ultimate choice are well worth exploring. The rationale for voting according to the values of the old socio-economic groupings may not be totally relevant today. It is likely that structural foundations of the British Asian societies may have shifted somewhat and the power of the ‘old order’ which was driven by socio-economic factors may have been disintegrating. It is not often realised that many early voting decisions were perhaps even motivated by what the British Asian groups had been doing in their home countries and the agendas that they had imported had virtually very little to do with British politics. A political-historical analysis of British Asian voting patterns should find some interesting outcomes.
There may be other ‘pulls’ which may be described in relation to what might be called the ‘Hornby factor’, the miniature railway infrastructure which covers the floors in many homes even today with different engines pulling trains into various directions and sometimes, an occasional train also falls off the table. The railway operators in the Hornby political power play are fragmented, often differentiated by narrow divisions and mostly independent drivers who do what they consider to be the best. However, the main parties also have powerful bases and the British Asian political choices are determined by where they live and how a very active underclass of politicians may have established very firm roots. The term ‘underclass’ is at best risky and at worst may be misleading but the political power that many British Asian groups enjoy is sometimes determined by jobs and housing; who they work for and where they live. These influences may be tampered by the power of the unions in the workplace or by success of the British Asian classes in the professions and business. One of the interesting outcomes relates to British Asian success in business; in the early days of migration, many family votes were tied to the values of the Labour party and these families probably gave a whole generation of support to Labour. However, as these groups have prospered and their children have acquired more influence over their parents, they may not be safe Labour voters any longer. The success of the retail trading alone has also meant that many British Asians are moving out of the inner city and finding homes in the prosperous suburbs of towns and cities such a Slough, Coventry, Birmingham and the boroughs of London. The Hornby train effect is still relevant to some voters. They have moved into prosperous areas but their values are still open to influence, almost as if any Hornby train engine will have sufficient power to pull them into different political journeys. However, the more informed British Asian who is now concerned with tax, inheritance and property valuations may see the Conservatives as the party of business people. Many notable people have changed their allegiances to party politics. Of course, there are many other factors which will impact on voting patterns.
The aftermath of the banning of ‘Behzti’, the Punjabi play in Birmingham in December 2004 was a serious issue for politics as it was so close to the last General Election. Writing on BBC Online, Dominic Casiani said “If you had to write a theatrical pitch for what Birmingham has just witnessed over the play Behzti, you could do it in seven words: Play offends community, community protests, play cancelled. But that simple three act performance conceals a far more complex drama about how we all share the same space in a pluralistic society. Can we really say what we want? Should we say what we want?”[1] It was felt at the time that the impact of Sikh vote could have influenced the outcomes in at least seven parliamentary seats. However there is no evidence in the public domain to sustain or refute this assertion. The impact of the Iraq War and the continuation of the war in Afghanistan may affect the vote again but there is very little informed analysis of what the political parties may be doing to retain Muslim confidence if the two wars are still a cause for major concern.
It must be remembered that with a few exceptions, general elections in East Africa did not create much excitement amongst the Asians, the large majority of which were not entitled to vote as they were not African citizens. It is hoped that that strong and powerful ‘Hornby train engines’ will emerge at the right time to make sure that British Asians use their vote, whatever their political choices …..
[1] BBC News at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4113287.stm
A Vice President’s Dilemma
October 21, 2009 · Leave a Comment
Uganda’s Vice President Visits Canada
There has been some discussion about the trip that the Vice President of Uganda has made to Canada to try to lure former Ugandan Asians back to the country from where they were expelled. They were the engine of commerce and investors in economic development of Uganda. It is said that the GDP of the country fell by 40% when the Asians finally vacated their key positions in the economy.
What was it about the Asian community that made them so special? Can the Ugandan authorities not replace them with other very successful operators of trade and commerce such as the Lebanese, the Chinese or even the Nigerians who now buy their stock in Hong Kong and sell the items in Zambia?
There are five elements of interest in relation to the emergence and consolidation of the Asians’ grip of the East and Central African economies. The Asians became the more favoured and notable producers of wealth in the East and Central African countries because their main “rivals”, the multinational corporations (the MNCs) were detested by many African governments. Large MNCs like the British banks and producers of goods that became household names- soaps, washing powders, paracetamol (provided by companies such as Reckitt and Coleman) wanted to externalise their profits to please their British shareholders. They were also mostly the manufacturers who expected more added value than the lower value adding Asian traders but who made up for this through their numbers.
The Asians also wanted to root themselves in the countries of their adoption, and consequently their presence was probably more valued. They created the highly costly distribution chains, taking goods from the main cities to the ‘charo’. The Dalgetys and Motor Marts had no such interest; they were mega-traders who wanted to move large amounts of money out of Africa.
The Asians were also investing more, in the main, in baseline infrastructure – low cost local shops, schools, clinics, housing for the lower paid whereas the MNCs, driven by the quest for larger profits were investing in 5 Star hotels or similar ventures.
Some of the greatest examples of diversified investment also came from the Asians, who were good at spotting niches – fishnets, plastics, furniture which met critical local needs.
Over a period of time, African entrepreneurs have taken over the low cost import substitution industries (toothpaste, matches, writing pens, notebooks) where as the Asians have started to move into high cost investment – medicines, telecoms, banks, computers.
So why does the Vice President of Uganda want the Asians to go back to Uganda? Idi Amin had removed the low cost baseline commerce that the Asians provided. There is another major factor at play here and I have just begun to see the impact of this on the UK economy- the provision of working capital by the commercial bank has dried up after the banking crash. Many small companies are starved of working capital.
In East Africa, the loans that ‘lubricated’ Asian commerce and trade were also guaranteed by the Asian mega-trader and not always by the commercial banks. The Asians had access to private sources of commercial lending or trade subsidies- many an Asian importer or manufacturer was willing to give credit to their own people; sometimes families and relations who had been set up to share the risks and rewards by the older patriarchs of Asian commerce.
I have seen the impact of this form of intra-Asian economic specialisation in the building construction industry, which was dominated by the Sikhs. The more successful owners of Sikh building firms were also informal money-lenders. They provided trade guarantees and offered working capital to the subsidiary companies in the supply chain, thereby tightening their grip over their dependency. It suited the rich Sikh building contractor to fund the baseline services and suppliers – the Sikh plumbers, electricians, painters in return for guarantees relating to quality of services but also incrementally rising loyalty. In the same way the Gujarati traders at the top of the pyramid were prepared to fund the dukawalla who was willing to work in the charo. By providing trade credit, i.e. goods on 60 days credit, the top Gujarati trader was a) expanding his own trading influence, b) taking lower levels of risk by funding trusted borrowers and c) ensuring loyalty of the trader in the charo, who would not normally switch suppliers. The Ismaili community also had internally sponsored ‘pseudo’ banking practices. The Ismaili ethic of sustaining the whole community was partly funded by the internal but informal money sources.
The intricate financing and co-financing habits of the Mafia come to mind, except that the Asians were not at all ruthless. This is not to say that they did not make their fellow traders suffer; there was anecdotal evidence of traders and suppliers being pushed to the edge where the ‘patriarch’ of the business line was occasionally offended. There was a further factor at work here. Where business was funded through caste-based “clans”, there was also intermarriage. The sponsor of your working capital would not fund your business if your son was not prepared to marry his obese and ugly daughter. Let us leave it at that….
Returning to the Uganda Vice President’s visit to Uganda to woo the Asians, it seems that the Asian presence in Uganda had been secured by living in the country for over a century, by accepting a subservient role in commerce and business compared to the British multinationals that eventually bore the brunt of Ugandan President Milton Obote’s and Zambia’s Kenneth Kaunda’s “watershed speeches” when they nationalised British multinationals and in the case of the latter also drove them into the ground by failing to run them profitably. The only stable element in the commerce of these countries was the Asians; they were too small to be nationalised and too intricately connected to allow African governments to dismantle them… Only Idi Amin had the brutal force to evict them lock-stock and barrel.
However, it is not just a case of replacing one group of departing Asians with another group of incoming Asian peoples. What will be missing is the cultural cement which held Asian trade and commerce together but more importantly the delicate interdependencies and the informal funding mechanisms which created access to low cost finance and also guarantees for access to local markets at low cost.
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Tagged: problems, return to Uganda, risk of failure, Uganda Asians, why they may not return